Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83cc…aa00 world 16 markets active 1d ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$2
other 14% +$2
politics 8% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -8.2%
all 15 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 7% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -5.6%
10% -19.4% 7% -14.7%
15% -27.2% 7% -22.9%
20% -34.3% 7% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×9.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.04 per $1 lost it wins $15.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage445d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will X buy TikTok? Jun 04 $2 $0 -12%
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend? Jun 03 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $12 +$8 +71%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $11 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $35 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $41 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $0.00 · 59 history records