Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ca…5168 sports 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 419d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,576 (-54%) realized −$1,561 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%43W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$167
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1,517
sports 15% +$32
politics 3% −$52
world 2% −$50
economics 0% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +50.8% +36.4% 39% 39% -32.2%
≤30d 36 +33.0% +20.4% 36% 36% -31.1%
≤90d 45 +26.2% +14.2% 36% 31% -30.6%
all 144 -7.4% -16.2% 30% 27% -65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 27% -65.9%
10% -24.2% 24% -69.2%
15% -31.5% 22% -72.2%
20% -38.3% 19% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

419d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$1,561
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses43 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)144 / 153
History coverage419d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $208 $199 −$9 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Casemiro: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 15¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals Yes 15¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Kwasi Sibo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Alberto Quintero: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$20 +197%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$5 +22%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1 $0 -20%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3 −$1 -27%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1 $0 +27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $3 $0 -2%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Casemiro: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 30h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Kwasi Sibo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Alberto Quintero: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 2d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.99 · official $346.39 (match) · 778 history records