Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c8…3b6c sports 1232 markets active 8h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,400 (-5%) realized −$3,400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%729W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day58.1pace
Fees−$903est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,286
other 1% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 51% -7.2%
≤30d 620 -4.8% -13.8% 57% 49% -13.4%
≤90d 1232 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 51% -10.5%
all 1232 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 51% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 51% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 41% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 31% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 22% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$34 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses729 / 503
Est. fees paid−$903
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1232 / 1232
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day58.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1232 Trades
no open positions (311 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $39 +$37 +93%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $42 −$39 -94%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $286 −$23 -8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $76 +$20 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $41 −$29 -72%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $101 −$50 -49%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $53 +$7 +14%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 +$40 +40%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 +$22 +72%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $58 +$6 +11%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $93 +$24 +26%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $78 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $80 +$9 +11%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $50 +$31 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $84 +$21 +25%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $129 +$22 +17%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $44 +$8 +19%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $21 −$3 -12%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $44 −$4 -9%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $113 −$6 -5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $53 −$8 -15%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$10 +16%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $33 +$6 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 +$54 +76%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$18 -83%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 +$21 +26%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$21 +86%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $53 +$22 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 5¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 89¢ $42 10h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 20¢ $10 11h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 20¢ $20 11h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 51¢ $39 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 100¢ $112 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 86¢ $97 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $97 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $76 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 40¢ $45 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 40¢ $21 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $11 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 61¢ $102 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 99¢ $36 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 54¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 38¢ $68 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 38¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 38¢ $9 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 38¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $26 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 37¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 39¢ $51 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 60¢ $50 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $41 16h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $60 16h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 60¢ $101 18h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL Ivory 100¢ $119 18h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL Ivory 54¢ $21 18h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 71¢ $24 18h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 64¢ $40 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records