Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x83c7…8567 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-15%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$1
weather 16% −$2
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 60% 60% -7.1%
≤30d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 60% 60% -7.1%
≤90d 7 -42.8% -48.2% 43% 43% -24.1%
all 7 -42.8% -48.2% 43% 43% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 43% -24.1%
10% -53.2% 14% -31.4%
15% -57.7% 14% -38.0%
20% -61.8% 14% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.51 · official $2.51 (match) · 14 history records