Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c7…fecc crypto 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%123W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$48
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$55
weather 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 13% -8.5%
≤30d 135 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 13% -8.5%
≤90d 151 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 15% -8.6%
all 151 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 15% -8.6%
10% -19.7% 8% -17.4%
15% -27.5% 5% -25.4%
20% -34.6% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses123 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage73d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $70 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $71 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records