Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c7…a475 crypto 356 markets active 6h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$169 (-8%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%119W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$37
14 days−$38
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$307
sports 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -26.0% -33.1% 28% 22% -34.6%
≤30d 114 -37.5% -43.5% 31% 20% -44.8%
≤90d 356 -16.4% -24.4% 33% 27% -26.6%
all 356 -16.4% -24.4% 33% 27% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 27% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 23% -33.6%
15% -38.2% 18% -40.0%
20% -44.3% 14% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses119 / 237
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage57d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions (178 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$3 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$6 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$12 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +6%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1458 history records