Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c6…5fcc crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%45W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$34
world 4% +$18
politics 2% −$8
other 1% −$5
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 40% -33.3%
≤30d 8 -7.1% -15.9% 38% 38% +2.3%
≤90d 14 -33.2% -39.5% 29% 29% +1.7%
all 131 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 31% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 31% -14.1%
10% -18.4% 31% -22.3%
15% -26.3% 30% -29.8%
20% -33.5% 28% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses45 / 86
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage103d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 25¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 26 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? Apr 15 $20 +$18 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 16 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 11 $2 +$3 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 10 $4 +$5 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 07 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 06 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 06 $6 +$10 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 06 $6 +$9 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 06 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 06 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 06 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 40¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 34¢ $1 3d
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 61d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 78d
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? BUY No 1¢ $1 84d
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 87d
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? BUY No 54¢ $4 87d
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.93 · official $3.93 (match) · 327 history records