Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c6…243b crypto 362 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (157 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$561 (-4%) realized −$517 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%308W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day156.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$7
sports 13% −$606
other 10% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 2% -13.6%
≤30d 357 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 2% -13.6%
≤90d 357 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 2% -13.6%
all 357 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 2% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 2% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 1% -21.9%
15% -27.1% 1% -29.5%
20% -34.3% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$517
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses308 / 49
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)357 / 362
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day156.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Yes 87¢ 80¢ $235 $217 −$19 (-8%)
Will the announcers say "Dominant" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 75¢ 76¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Speed say "Hat trick" on stream? Yes 77¢ 49¢ $61 $39 −$22 (-36%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will the announcers say "Oh my God" or "Oh my Goodness" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $29 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $38 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $48 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $22 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $64 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 21m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 26m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.61 · official $334.61 (match) · 779 history records