Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c3…404e finance 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$2
14 days+$16
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 88% −$46
world 8% +$22
crypto 2% $0
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 16 -13.0% -21.3% 56% 44% -6.8%
≤90d 56 -10.2% -18.8% 43% 29% -14.3%
all 68 -7.9% -16.6% 43% 28% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 28% -10.8%
10% -24.6% 19% -19.4%
15% -31.9% 7% -27.2%
20% -38.6% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage106d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 58¢ 62¢ $68 $74 +$6 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $157 +$25 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $87 −$28 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$23 +22%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $51 −$16 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $54 +$16 +29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $53 −$4 -7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 31 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? May 31 $28 −$5 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 15 $63 −$3 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 01 $92 −$21 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 01 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 29 $14 −$14 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of April 27 2026? Apr 29 $7 −$4 -67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on April 28? Apr 29 $10 +$3 +35%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $6 +$1 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 28 $19 −$2 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 28 $16 +$4 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 28 $40 +$2 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $8 +$1 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $38 −$18 -47%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 23 $10 +$4 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $5 +$5 +92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 22 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Apr 21 $6 $0 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 18 $32 −$5 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $117 −$17 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 14 $26 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 13 $56 −$7 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 13 $30 −$8 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 13 $171 −$31 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 09 $64 −$11 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $29 −$6 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 07 $116 +$25 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $72 −$4 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 06 $16 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $13 −$7 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 63¢ $5 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $2 13m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 72¢ $7 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 73¢ $2 23m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 73¢ $2 28m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 79¢ $9 33m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 71¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 68¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 67¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 68¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 65¢ $3 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 59¢ $4 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 58¢ $2 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $5 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $0 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $0 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $6 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $8 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 50¢ $12 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.76 · official $69.04 · 560 history records