Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83c3…f740
other · 56 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)50 / 56
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day110.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 6 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao leading at halftime? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 63¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+58%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
United States leading at halftime? No 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? No 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? No 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Mexico leading at halftime? No 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will England win on 2026-06-10? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -6%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +9%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -2%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $16 +$5 +30%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $18 +$4 +24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $13 −$9 -71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 +$4 +6%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $43 −$4 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -30%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +8%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $13 +$5 +38%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -92%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $31 $0 +1%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +35%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Malawi win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $14 −$8 -58%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $38 −$12 -31%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $9 −$6 -60%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$5 +78%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% −$8
sports 34% −$8
crypto 1% +$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 16¢ $1 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 54m
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $10 54m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $5 54m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 54m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $3 54m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $3 54m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 54m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 56m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 56m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL No 63¢ $6 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 13¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 19¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $4 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 50 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 20% -9.6%
≤90d 50 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 20% -9.6%
all 50 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 20% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 20% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 16% -18.2%
15% -36.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -42.3% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 610 history records