Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83c2…2090 other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$45
sports 27% −$28
culture 6% −$6
politics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage138d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $396 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $456 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $960 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $369 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $421 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $351 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 6h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 17h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 41h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1440 history records