Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83bd…3f07
crypto · 829 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$500 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$500 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses354 / 468
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)822 / 829
History coverage25d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 7 History 822 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$164
14 days−$319
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 39¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$24 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$23 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +279%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$12 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$5 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$6 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$9 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$7 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$29 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$24 +78%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$511
other 1% −$2
sports 0% +$15
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $7 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 6¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 10h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +20.8% +9.3% 49% 49% -33.9%
≤30d 822 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 41% -19.5%
≤90d 822 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 41% -19.5%
all 822 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 41% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 41% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 38% -27.2%
15% -32.5% 36% -34.2%
20% -39.1% 32% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.17 · official $51.28 (match) · 1788 history records