Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83bd…a2a0
weather · 324 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$228 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$236 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized+$236
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses121 / 173
Open positions30
Markets (closed)294 / 324
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day184.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 30 History 294 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$176
14 days+$236
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 90¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 87¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 81¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? No 95¢ 95¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 92¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 88¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? No 91¢ 89¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 92¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 94¢ 88¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$17 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +390%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 16% -27.2%
≤30d 294 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 17% +3.9%
≤90d 294 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 17% +3.9%
all 294 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 17% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover184.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 17% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 12% -6.1%
15% -19.2% 10% -15.1%
20% -27.1% 9% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.50 · official $44.52 (match) · 2103 history records