Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ba…2404 sports 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,437 (-9%) realized −$2,490 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%150W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days−$353
14 days−$788
30 days−$2,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,695
other 12% +$423
crypto 1% −$191
world 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -2.8% -12.1% 51% 51% -13.6%
≤30d 231 -13.5% -21.7% 51% 49% -18.3%
≤90d 295 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 49% -17.9%
all 295 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 49% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 49% -17.9%
10% -26.7% 47% -25.8%
15% -33.8% 41% -32.9%
20% -40.2% 31% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$74 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$2,490
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses150 / 145
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions2
Markets (closed)295 / 297
History coverage46d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 44¢ 48¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $87 +$69 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 −$41 -44%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $61 +$30 +50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $79 +$79 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 −$19 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $97 +$51 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$61 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $116 −$72 -62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $137 −$38 -28%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$11 +41%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $100 −$72 -73%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $151 −$51 -34%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $47 −$46 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $40 +$12 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $99 +$62 +63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $75 +$36 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $184 −$121 -66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $44 +$11 +26%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $45 +$31 +68%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $312 −$268 -86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$76 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $97 −$96 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$69 -68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $175 −$173 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $101 +$65 +64%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $160 −$157 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 −$75 -74%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $98 +$131 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 +$127 +125%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$92 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$114 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $96 +$240 +249%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $119 +$59 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 44¢ $40 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 56¢ $40 9m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $54 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $155 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $87 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $39 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $92 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $91 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $61 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $158 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $79 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $79 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $98 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $97 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $37 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 27¢ $45 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $116 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $105 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $86 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $39 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 70¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 17¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.46 · official $192.46 (match) · 541 history records