Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b9…3e15 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
crypto 16% $0
politics 15% +$1
other 12% −$3
sports 4% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.9%
all 34 -3.6% -12.8% 26% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -10.0%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage257d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $35 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $45 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $36 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $35 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $9 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $35 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $41 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Jan 31 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 22 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 20 $22 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 09 $21 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $25 +$1 +4%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $15 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $35 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $35 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $31 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $17 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $18 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $35 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $36 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records