Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b9…1def other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$52 (+6%) realized +$1 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$326
7 days−$220
14 days−$224
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-86.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -90.1% -91.1% 2% 2% -62.5%
≤30d 106 -84.4% -85.9% 5% 5% -68.8%
≤90d 109 -84.8% -86.3% 5% 5% -77.7%
all 109 -84.8% -86.3% 5% 5% -77.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.3% 5% -77.7%
10% -87.6% 4% -79.8%
15% -88.8% 4% -81.8%
20% -89.9% 2% -83.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 104
Open positions35
Markets (closed)109 / 20
History coverage41d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 52¢ $4 $52 +$48 (+1239%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 30¢ $4 $30 +$27 (+693%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 28¢ $4 $28 +$24 (+615%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $4 $24 +$20 (+524%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $4 $24 +$20 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.70 · official $185.70 (match) · 126 history records