Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x83b8…e3d0
crypto · 1430 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$902 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,102 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses794 / 661
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1455 / 1430
History coverage36d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day78.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$44
14 days−$150
30 days−$1,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$5 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,032
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -20.0% -27.6% 60% 28% -11.3%
≤30d 1208 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 45% -21.2%
≤90d 1455 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 45% -19.2%
all 1455 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 45% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 45% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 40% -26.9%
15% -32.5% 34% -34.0%
20% -39.1% 29% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records