Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x83b8…d1fb sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,237 (+45%) realized +$2,225 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,788
politics 21% +$722
other 11% −$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.1% -54.8% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 3 -50.1% -54.8% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤90d 4 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -45.0%
all 37 +20.9% +9.4% 59% 59% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 59% +31.9%
10% -1.1% 59% +19.3%
15% -10.6% 59% +7.7%
20% -19.4% 54% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$63 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$2,225
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage594d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 50¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$50 +50%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $99 −$98 -99%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Dec 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Sabres vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Dec 10 $212 +$181 +85%
Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 09 $250 +$212 +85%
Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5 Dec 09 $150 +$150 +100%
Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5 Dec 08 $75 +$75 +100%
Spread: Packers (-6.5) Dec 08 $300 +$266 +89%
Titans vs. Browns Dec 07 $103 +$156 +151%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 06 $300 +$153 +51%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 Dec 06 $94 +$110 +117%
Will Trump say "Tariff" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5? Dec 05 $50 +$21 +42%
Spread: Lions (-3.5) Dec 05 $131 +$142 +108%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $84 +$47 +56%
Leeds United vs. Chelsea: Both Teams to Score Dec 03 $100 +$72 +72%
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $25 +$17 +66%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Oilers vs. Avalanche Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-14? Jan 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Vikings vs. Rams Jan 14 $75 +$95 +127%
Broncos vs. Bills Jan 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Chargers vs. Texans Jan 12 $50 +$72 +144%
Rockets vs. Bucks Nov 19 $140 +$98 +70%
Chiefs vs. Bills Nov 18 $371 +$284 +77%
Bengals vs. Chargers Nov 18 $100 +$96 +96%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 17 $37 −$37 -100%
AOC pregnant in 2024? Nov 14 $99 −$34 -35%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Warriors vs. Celtics Nov 07 $50 +$97 +195%
Will Stade Brestois beat Sparta Praha? Nov 06 $34 +$55 +160%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $989 +$701 +71%
Cowboys vs. Falcons Nov 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY 29¢ $51 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $26 20h
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $99 62d
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $200 191d
Sabres vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 54¢ $212 192d
Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $462 192d
Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $250 192d
Eagles vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5 BUY Under 50¢ $150 193d
Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 193d
Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $75 193d
Spread: Packers (-6.5) BUY Packers 53¢ $300 194d
Titans vs. Browns SELL Titans 93¢ $259 194d
Titans vs. Browns BUY Titans 37¢ $50 194d
Titans vs. Browns BUY Titans 37¢ $53 194d
Georgia vs. Alabama SELL Georgia 80¢ $453 195d
Georgia vs. Alabama BUY Georgia 53¢ $300 195d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 47¢ $104 195d
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 195d
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $94 196d
Will Trump say "Tariff" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5? SELL No 100¢ $71 196d
Will Trump say "Tariff" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5? BUY No 70¢ $50 196d
Spread: Lions (-3.5) BUY Lions 48¢ $131 197d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? SELL Yes 84¢ $131 197d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? BUY Yes 54¢ $84 197d
Leeds United vs. Chelsea: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $172 198d
Leeds United vs. Chelsea: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $100 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.22 · official $162.22 · 80 history records