Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x83b5…f7d0 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$249 (+24%) realized +$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$243
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.1% +19.5% 86% 64% +11.5%
≤30d 14 +32.1% +19.5% 86% 64% +11.5%
≤90d 14 +32.1% +19.5% 86% 64% +11.5%
all 14 +32.1% +19.5% 86% 64% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 64% +11.5%
10% +8.1% 43% +0.8%
15% -2.3% 43% -8.9%
20% -11.9% 21% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1 · ×39.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×237.56 per $1 lost it wins $237.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $547 +$57 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$77 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $109 +$42 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $75 +$34 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $319 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $284 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $284 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $262 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $83 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $179 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $78 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records