Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83b4…11c3 crypto 1181 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-7%) realized −$249 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%455W / 743L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$80
14 days−$88
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$332
other 2% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -63.2% -66.7% 27% 27% -64.9%
≤30d 388 -16.9% -24.8% 64% 59% -18.9%
≤90d 1198 -39.9% -45.6% 38% 29% -28.1%
all 1198 -39.9% -45.6% 38% 29% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.6% 29% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.8% 16% -35.0%
15% -55.6% 9% -41.3%
20% -59.9% 6% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$249
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses455 / 743
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1198 / 1181
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 31¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $1.11 · 3500 history records