Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83af…bcc6 crypto 1040 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$894 (-19%) realized −$894 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%491W / 549L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$86
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -6.0% -14.9% 43% 35% -12.7%
≤30d 376 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 35% -13.1%
≤90d 913 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 43% -13.5%
all 1040 -5.8% -14.8% 47% 43% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 43% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 39% -22.1%
15% -30.4% 37% -29.7%
20% -37.2% 32% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$894
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses491 / 549
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1040 / 1040
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1040 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records