Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83ae…c0dd sports 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$14
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$12
sports 13% +$8
world 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.0% -2.3% 67% 33% -13.6%
≤30d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 47% 40% -14.1%
≤90d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 47% 40% -14.1%
all 15 +12.9% +2.1% 47% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 40% -14.1%
10% -7.6% 40% -22.3%
15% -16.6% 33% -29.8%
20% -24.7% 33% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $289 −$15 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $55 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $58 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $58 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $64 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $67 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 10d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $5 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $10 10d
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 10d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $5 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 10d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 33 history records