Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83ad…fafb other 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%18W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1
crypto 29% $0
world 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 19 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses18 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage240d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 17 $25 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Nov 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 7? Nov 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 2? Nov 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 31? Nov 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 28? Oct 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? Oct 28 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 5d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 26d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 56d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 80d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $26 132d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $26 149d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 164d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $24 177d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 193d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $23 200d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY No 100¢ $23 210d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 218d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 7? BUY No 100¢ $23 221d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 2? BUY No 100¢ $23 226d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $2 228d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 228d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 28? SELL Yes $2 231d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 28? SELL Yes $2 231d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 28? BUY Yes $2 231d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,500 on October 28? BUY Yes $2 231d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.03 · official $25.03 (match) · 40 history records