Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x83ab…8174 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,148 (+11%) realized +$1,159 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,202
world 3% −$57
other 2% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.3% -21.6% 47% 35% +2.9%
≤30d 17 -13.3% -21.6% 47% 35% +2.9%
≤90d 17 -13.3% -21.6% 47% 35% +2.9%
all 17 -13.3% -21.6% 47% 35% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 35% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 24% -7.0%
15% -35.9% 24% -16.0%
20% -42.2% 18% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$52 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,038
Realized+$1,159
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $1,048 $1,038 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$28 +144%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $505 +$48 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$14 -54%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$29 +187%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 +$35 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $758 −$43 -6%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,517 +$448 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,255 +$236 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $283 −$57 -20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,767 +$694 +39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$7 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $429 +$47 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $600 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $4 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $553 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $505 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 18¢ $51 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 18¢ $52 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 18¢ $52 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 18¢ $52 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 18¢ $54 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 AND Norway BUY 16¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 13¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 13¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 18¢ $60 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 13¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $2 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 15¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway BUY 16¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana v BUY 23¢ $76 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,037.53 · official $1,521.08 · 103 history records