Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
83 0x83ab…06df other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36,064 (+70%) realized +$33,872 · open +$2,192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$8,557per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$35,719
other 2% +$1,983
sports 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.3% -5.6% 40% 40% +54.2%
≤30d 5 +4.3% -5.6% 40% 40% +54.2%
≤90d 5 +4.3% -5.6% 40% 40% +54.2%
all 5 +4.3% -5.6% 40% 40% +54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 40% +54.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 40% +39.5%
15% -22.9% 40% +26.0%
20% -30.5% 40% +13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17,885 vs −$103 · ×174.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×116.29 per $1 lost it wins $116.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,192
Realized+$33,872
Unrealized+$2,192
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8,557
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 13¢ 42¢ $1,000 $3,192 +$2,192 (+219%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49,981 +$35,719 +72%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$98 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $190 −$189 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$50 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $17,385 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $317 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,851 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $500 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,025 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $255 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,970 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $26,963 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $230 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,192.31 · official $3,192.31 (match) · 52 history records