Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x83a9…7d6e world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 22% $0
politics 22% $0
economics 10% +$5
tech 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 30% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 30% 0% -9.2%
all 34 +0.8% -8.8% 32% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage289d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $38 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $40 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 19 $38 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 14 $2 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 14h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $41 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $17 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $24 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $38 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $40.42 (match) · 151 history records