Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83a6…cd35 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$189 (-46%) realized −$197 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$156
14 days−$211
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$192
sports 18% −$19
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.1% -14.2% 36% 29% -60.2%
≤30d 16 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 25% -66.7%
≤90d 16 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 25% -66.7%
all 16 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 25% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 25% -66.7%
10% -32.1% 25% -69.9%
15% -38.6% 25% -72.8%
20% -44.7% 25% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$22 -72%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$9 +142%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $140 −$129 -92%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +473%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 15h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $140 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.60 · official $67.60 (match) · 25 history records