Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83a5…3b52 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%36W / 11L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
other 25% $0
politics 13% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 47 +0.2% -9.4% 77% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses36 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage493d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $24 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Mar 24 $30 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 21 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 91d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 122d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 150d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 180d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $29 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 100¢ $8 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 242d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 273d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? BUY No 100¢ $3 423d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 425d
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? BUY No 99¢ $10 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $42.14 (match) · 96 history records