Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83a4…9c70 crypto 1251 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,058 (+1%) realized +$1,060 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%855W / 395L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$99
14 days+$127
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$677
other 13% +$88
crypto 5% −$45
politics 4% +$74
finance 3% +$173
economics 1% +$10
world 1% +$16
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 2% -8.7%
≤30d 58 +1.3% -8.4% 98% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 220 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 2% -8.6%
all 1250 -0.9% -10.3% 68% 51% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 51% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 51% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 4% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,060
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses855 / 395
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1250 / 1251
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 98¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $125 +$3 +3%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $66 +$1 +1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $111 +$1 +1%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $114 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $185 −$7 -4%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $757 +$8 +1%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $102 +$1 +1%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$2 +21%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,091 +$12 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $542 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $612 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $644 +$7 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $409 +$2 +1%
Alex Freeman: 1+ goals Jun 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 19 $206 +$2 +1%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 19 $436 +$8 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,151 +$10 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $59 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $235 +$2 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $621 +$6 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $995 +$8 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $141 +$1 +1%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $794 +$6 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $354 +$3 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $747 +$3 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $396 +$4 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $416 +$4 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? SELL No 100¢ $128 50m
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 97¢ $125 2h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 27h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $66 27h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $71 28h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $38 28h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $2 28h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 46h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $89 47h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $27 47h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $13 2d
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $35 2d
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $11 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals SELL No 75¢ $174 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals SELL No 80¢ $2 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $185 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $256 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $41 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $81 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $107 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $249 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 3500 history records