Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
83 0x83a2…67ed crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$148 (+8%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$896
other 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +76.3% +59.5% 62% 62% +55.0%
≤30d 8 +76.3% +59.5% 62% 62% +55.0%
≤90d 8 +76.3% +59.5% 62% 62% +55.0%
all 8 +76.3% +59.5% 62% 62% +55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.5% 62% +55.0%
10% +44.2% 62% +40.2%
15% +30.3% 62% +26.6%
20% +17.5% 62% +14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$170 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $251 +$582 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $195 −$187 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$380 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$162 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $119 −$112 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$143 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $156 +$140 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $833 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $85 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $83 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $84 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $91 55m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $677 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $511 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $260 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $296 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $156 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $666.00 · 21 history records