Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x83a0…ece1 crypto 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$866 (-6%) realized −$866 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%108W / 45L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$192
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$998
crypto 44% −$426
other 3% +$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -51.9% -56.5% 33% 17% -41.4%
≤30d 6 -51.9% -56.5% 33% 17% -41.4%
≤90d 153 +11.4% +0.8% 71% 25% -17.1%
all 153 +11.4% +0.8% 71% 25% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 25% -17.1%
10% -8.8% 9% -25.0%
15% -17.6% 5% -32.3%
20% -25.7% 4% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$52 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$866
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses108 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage71d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $95 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $69 −$35 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $114 +$38 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $160 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 17 $8 $0 +5%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $29 −$25 -86%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $89 −$33 -37%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $523 −$155 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 13 $20 −$18 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 13 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 13 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2PM ET May 12 $184 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $420 +$50 +12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $570 −$511 -90%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7AM ET May 11 $313 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $2,246 −$634 -28%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $560 +$40 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $57 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $857 +$36 +4%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $1,136 +$80 +7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $415 +$54 +13%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $322 +$84 +26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $98 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 04 $14 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 03 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $4 +$3 +77%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $43 −$32 -75%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $44 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $41 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$5 -40%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $3 +$91 +2847%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $34 +$163 +479%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $8 +$89 +1114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 28 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 28 $20 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 28 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 28 $90 −$60 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 28 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $166 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 823 history records