Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x83a0…12ca sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,243 (-11%) realized −$2,224 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%42W / 26L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$24
14 days+$45
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,345
other 1% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -48.2% -53.1% 33% 33% -28.4%
≤30d 7 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 43% +5.8%
≤90d 13 -16.4% -24.4% 62% 38% -27.6%
all 68 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 53% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 53% -18.9%
10% -19.1% 44% -26.7%
15% -26.9% 35% -33.8%
20% -34.1% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$243 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$2,224
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses42 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage154d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $33 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 38¢ $44 $25 −$19 (-43%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $58 +$32 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Closed Q Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$59 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $103 +$10 +10%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $32 −$31 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $84 +$51 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $13 +$2 +13%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $625 −$625 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 27 $627 −$627 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $1,198 +$80 +7%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $531 +$149 +28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $991 +$84 +8%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $761 −$458 -60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $392 +$194 +50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $276 +$122 +44%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $465 +$95 +20%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 14 $359 +$107 +30%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 13 $346 +$18 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 13 $886 −$820 -92%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $963 −$730 -76%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 13 $1,575 +$361 +23%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 13 $1,441 +$153 +11%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $978 +$464 +47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $904 +$88 +10%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $868 +$47 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $778 −$778 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $865 −$865 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Mar 10 $585 +$584 +100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $741 +$453 +61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 07 $503 +$289 +58%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 24 $214 −$181 -84%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 23 $31 +$180 +572%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 23 $62 −$48 -78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $132 +$19 +14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $31 +$28 +89%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 21 $34 +$20 +59%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $13 −$12 -91%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Feb 19 $13 +$12 +88%
Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $14 +$8 +56%
Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Feb 19 $13 +$7 +58%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 18 $40 +$15 +37%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner Feb 18 $36 +$5 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner Feb 18 $28 +$9 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Feb 12 $18 +$10 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoff Feb 09 $17 +$2 +12%
1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Feb 09 $6 +$4 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $58 26h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 3d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $33 3d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $32 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $35 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 76¢ $113 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $103 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 35¢ $32 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 61¢ $84 15d
Dota 2: Aurora vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $14 63d
Dota 2: Aurora vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 88¢ $13 63d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 48¢ $625 84d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof BUY Team Spirit 51¢ $627 84d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $1,277 85d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 94¢ $1,198 85d
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $680 88d
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 78¢ $531 88d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $1,075 89d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 92¢ $991 89d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 60¢ $114 97d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 23¢ $115 97d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $183 97d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 25¢ $188 97d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $578 97d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $585 98d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $392 98d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $398 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.14 · official $103.14 (match) · 135 history records