Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

83 0x839f…fb43 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$192 · open −$125

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$374per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$84est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$194

7 days+$540

14 days+$540

30 days−$239

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+0.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+31.9%	+19.4%	56%	56%	+3.7%
≤30d	15	+7.8%	-2.4%	47%	47%	-13.2%
≤90d	16	+12.4%	+1.7%	50%	50%	-9.5%
all	17	+11.5%	+0.9%	47%	47%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.9%	47%	-9.5%
10%	-8.8%	47%	-18.2%
15%	-17.6%	47%	-26.1%
20%	-25.6%	47%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$508) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -11% → late +32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$374 vs −$332 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage

Net worth$465

Realized+$192

Unrealized−$125

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$84

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage150d

Avg bet$374

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Norway	59¢	46¢	$590	$465	−$125 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$687	+$830	+121%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$457	−$341	-74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$866	−$855	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$508	+$492	+97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$152	+$148	+97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$397	−$392	-99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$77	−$76	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$89	+$211	+238%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$477	+$523	+109%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	May 20	$240	−$237	-99%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20?	May 20	$657	−$650	-99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	May 19	$667	−$434	-65%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	May 19	$300	+$300	+100%
BNB Up or Down on May 11?	May 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	May 18	$256	+$244	+95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$299	+$241	+81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Jan 17	$10	$0	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$597	50m
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	88¢	$1,517	1h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$687	19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	12¢	$117	19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$457	20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	57¢	$866	21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$508	28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$397	41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$152	46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$77	47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	29¢	$89	2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$477	3d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$240	27d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$657	27d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	23¢	$180	28d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	27¢	$53	28d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	66¢	$667	28d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$97	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$20	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$5	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$50	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$97	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$5	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$2	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$7	29d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	BUY Burnley FC	50¢	$17	29d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	BUY FC Barcelona	51¢	$5	30d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	BUY FC Barcelona	51¢	$3	30d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	BUY FC Barcelona	51¢	$52	30d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	BUY FC Barcelona	51¢	$1	30d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.00 · official $480.00 · 51 history records