Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x839b…16b8 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$170 (+1%) realized +$172 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$114
14 days+$971
30 days−$1,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$98
other 6% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 56% 56% +3.1%
≤30d 51 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 41% -21.2%
≤90d 51 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 41% -21.2%
all 59 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 46% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 46% -8.5%
10% -20.1% 46% -17.2%
15% -27.9% 44% -25.2%
20% -34.9% 42% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$152 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage167d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $142 $140 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $225 +$133 +59%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $182 +$164 +90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $26 +$34 +134%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$13 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 −$38 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $86 −$85 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $80 +$49 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $128 −$126 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 −$11 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $247 +$425 +172%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $80 +$122 +152%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $385 −$379 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $384 −$379 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $186 −$183 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$53 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $895 +$740 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $403 +$518 +129%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $64 −$15 -23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $256 −$160 -63%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 04 $64 +$51 +79%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $301 +$259 +86%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $161 +$104 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $32 −$32 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $98 −$97 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Jun 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-5.5) Jun 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Heat (-7.5) Jun 01 $63 −$63 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 01 $63 −$63 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 01 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 01 $158 −$158 -100%
First Round Pool A: Panama vs. Colombia Jun 01 $613 −$613 -100%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Jun 01 $880 −$880 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jun 01 $855 −$855 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $160 +$84 +52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $64 −$63 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $65 +$90 +140%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 30 $65 +$83 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $64 +$42 +65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $16 +$22 +139%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 28 $81 +$131 +162%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $320 +$88 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $516 +$302 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $144 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $358 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $347 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $26 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $32 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $225 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $150 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $22 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $32 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $86 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $128 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $80 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 21¢ $15 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $26 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $247 8d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $80 8d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $385 9d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $384 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $186 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $32 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $895 11d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 43¢ $265 14d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 43¢ $138 14d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) SELL Spurs 52¢ $49 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 67¢ $92 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $96 16d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $64 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $160 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.35 · official $140.35 (match) · 124 history records