Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x8397…0dbb sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,006 (-13%) realized −$869 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$166
14 days+$231
30 days−$947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$610
other 14% +$98
politics 12% −$320
world 9% −$265
culture 1% +$17
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.6% +20.0% 100% 100% +14.0%
≤30d 58 -23.4% -30.7% 43% 38% -21.8%
≤90d 58 -23.4% -30.7% 43% 38% -21.8%
all 58 -23.4% -30.7% 43% 38% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 38% -21.8%
10% -37.3% 31% -29.3%
15% -43.4% 24% -36.1%
20% -48.9% 21% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$80 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized−$869
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions12
Markets (closed)58 / 70
History coverage28d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $196 $205 +$8 (+4%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 77¢ 72¢ $65 $60 −$5 (-7%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 40¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $65 $40 −$25 (-39%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Yes 11¢ $130 $20 −$110 (-85%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 21 $72 +$41 +57%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 21 $233 +$63 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $245 +$33 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $86 +$28 +32%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $82 +$32 +39%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $59 +$47 +79%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 07 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $8 +$5 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 +$48 +188%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $30 −$29 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $71 +$46 +65%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 04 $26 −$25 -98%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 04 $74 −$72 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $93 +$45 +48%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $208 +$135 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $220 −$218 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 02 $118 −$118 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $118 +$17 +14%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $260 +$80 +31%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $66 +$61 +93%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec May 31 $73 −$71 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 31 $244 −$244 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 30 $23 −$22 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $95 −$93 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $224 −$222 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $211 −$208 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $209 +$48 +23%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 27 $253 −$250 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $239 +$140 +59%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 26 $257 −$252 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $48 +$27 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $598 −$29 -5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No May 26 $20 −$20 -97%
Centurion: Stefan Vujic vs Stefano Napolitano May 26 $539 +$58 +11%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou May 26 $209 −$205 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $17 −$1 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $97 −$12 -12%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $100 −$12 -12%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $179 +$425 +238%
Roland Garros WTA: Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens May 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $293 +$28 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $35 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $45 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $59 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $80 5h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 68¢ $80 5h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $89 5h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $273 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY No 77¢ $66 5h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $83 5h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $35 6h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 6h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $133 6h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 52¢ $14 13d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 55¢ $59 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 32¢ $30 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $86 15d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $8 15d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 95¢ $23 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $198 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $25 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 62¢ $72 15d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $26 17d
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva BUY Erika Andreeva 41¢ $10 17d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 88¢ $5 17d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 39¢ $74 17d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 60¢ $71 17d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $93 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $220 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.22 · official $894.36 (match) · 118 history records