Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8394…8d66 weather 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$321 (+3%) realized +$192 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%146W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$15
14 days+$41
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$18
other 14% +$52
tech 12% +$85
crypto 6% +$29
world 6% +$93
politics 3% −$18
sports 2% +$84
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% +$7
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.2% +1.5% 88% 75% +1.9%
≤30d 24 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 54% +2.6%
≤90d 44 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 52% -13.8%
all 190 +6.5% -3.7% 77% 38% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 38% -7.3%
10% -12.9% 19% -16.2%
15% -21.3% 12% -24.3%
20% -29.0% 8% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$2,031
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses146 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions45
Markets (closed)190 / 235
History coverage267d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 80¢ 98¢ $268 $329 +$61 (+23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $214 $214 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $168 $195 +$27 (+16%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $144 $150 +$6 (+4%)
ByteDance IPO before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $125 $137 +$12 (+10%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $95 $120 +$25 (+26%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $101 $102 +$2 (+2%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 73¢ 74¢ $66 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $44 $52 +$7 (+17%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 76¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 71¢ 50¢ $64 $45 −$19 (-29%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $46 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $42 $37 −$6 (-13%)
OKX IPO in 2026? No 59¢ 90¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No 22¢ 43¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+97%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 29¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-7%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 64¢ $20 $26 +$5 (+26%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing 92¢ 93¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 65¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$4 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $38 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $136 +$24 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of May 25 2026 May 30 $13 +$20 +148%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $17 +$3 +18%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 27 $140 +$34 +24%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $64 +$26 +41%
Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 24 $9 +$1 +7%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $50 −$31 -63%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 22 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie May 20 $22 +$15 +68%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 15 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $78 +$12 +15%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Apr 10 $94 +$25 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 19? Apr 10 $26 +$4 +18%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $38 +$12 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 19? Apr 10 $403 +$29 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19? Mar 19 $107 −$11 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 19? Mar 19 $347 −$218 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 19? Mar 19 $107 −$75 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 19? Mar 19 $74 −$60 -82%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $35 +$4 +11%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 18? Mar 18 $54 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 18? Mar 18 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on March 18? Mar 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 18? Mar 18 $119 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 18? Mar 18 $121 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 18? Mar 18 $35 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 18? Mar 18 $56 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 18? Mar 18 $54 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4m
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 23m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 56¢ $11 51m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 55¢ $3 54m
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 57m
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 84¢ $8 1h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 50¢ $1 14h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 50¢ $4 14h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 50¢ $0 14h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 50¢ $3 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 26h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $19 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 34h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $98 2d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 3d
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 5d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 5d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $8 5d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 50¢ $2 6d
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 55¢ $6 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,031.46 · official $2,030.19 (match) · 1838 history records