Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8393…3e6f other 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 21% −$14
politics 10% −$12
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 1% -9.7%
all 230 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage127d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $901 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $611 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $366 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $405 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 5h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 10h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $8 12h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 17h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 19h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 20h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 21h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 22h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 30h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 34h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 36h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1 36h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 38h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 44h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 46h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 47h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records