Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8392…e3a2
crypto · 856 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,264 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$340 · open −$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized−$340
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses383 / 469
Open positions4
Markets (closed)852 / 856
History coverage240d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 4 History 852 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days−$349
14 days−$340
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $70 $10 −$60 (-86%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$22 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$41 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $142 −$18 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $247 −$182 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $84 +$35 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$51 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$39 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$11 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $63 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $78 −$27 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $41 −$26 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $63 −$13 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $32 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $47 −$40 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$21 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$101 +478%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$51 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $47 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 04 $42 +$58 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$990
world 19% +$599
other 1% +$99
politics 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $42 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $42 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $110 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.3% -22.5% 48% 44% -33.9%
≤30d 66 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 319 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 42% -20.9%
all 852 +2.3% -7.5% 45% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 41% -10.4%
10% -16.3% 38% -19.0%
15% -24.4% 34% -26.8%
20% -31.8% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.34 · official $54.34 (match) · 3500 history records