trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 34 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 62% | 38% | +1.5% |
| ≤30d | 34 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 62% | 38% | +1.5% |
| ≤90d | 34 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 62% | 38% | +1.5% |
| all | 34 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 62% | 38% | +1.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +8.1% | 38% | +1.5% |
| 10% | -2.2% | 26% | -8.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -11.7% | 26% | -17.1% |
| 20% | -20.3% | 24% | -25.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 81¢ | 90¢ | $14,547 | $16,290 | +$1,743 (+12%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 56¢ | $5,300 | $10,168 | +$4,868 (+92%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $3,060 | $3,994 | +$934 (+31%) |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | $1,941 | $2,250 | +$309 (+16%) |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 43¢ | 46¢ | $1,465 | $1,584 | +$119 (+8%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 11¢ | $825 | $1,085 | +$260 (+32%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 90¢ | 86¢ | $1,099 | $1,045 | −$54 (-5%) |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $543 | $539 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 13¢ | $483 | $398 | −$86 (-18%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | Jun 17 | $60 | +$240 | +400% |
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $126 | +$174 | +138% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 17 | $2,600 | +$358 | +14% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $2,860 | +$1,036 | +36% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $123 | +$177 | +144% |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | Jun 16 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 16 | $2,730 | +$255 | +9% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $264 | +$657 | +249% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $267 | −$267 | -100% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $4,718 | +$348 | +7% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca | Jun 15 | $60 | +$240 | +400% |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jun 15 | $145 | +$155 | +107% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? | Jun 15 | $1,840 | +$131 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $3,640 | +$3,320 | +91% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 14 | $253 | −$253 | -100% |
| Spread: Spain (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $155 | −$155 | -100% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $189 | +$12 | +6% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 14 | $1,220 | −$211 | -17% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 14 | $1,920 | −$910 | -47% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $129 | −$129 | -100% |
| Spread: Spain (-4.5) | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Jun 14 | $868 | +$93 | +11% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? | Jun 14 | $1,738 | +$249 | +14% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 14 | $2,779 | +$402 | +14% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $246 | −$126 | -51% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 13 | $14,580 | +$648 | +4% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $93 | −$93 | -100% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $49 | −$48 | -98% |
| Spread: Brazil (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $74 | −$72 | -98% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 13 | $2,751 | +$148 | +5% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $49 | +$53 | +109% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $335 | −$335 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,246 | +$112 | +9% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $2,952 | +$48 | +2% |