Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x8390…09f1 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,867 (+19%) realized +$9,776 · open +$8,091
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$2,228per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37,353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,333
7 days+$6,213
14 days+$6,213
30 days+$6,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$13,056
politics 18% +$1,006
other 11% −$43
sports 1% +$413
crypto 0% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +19.5% +8.1% 62% 38% +1.5%
≤30d 34 +19.5% +8.1% 62% 38% +1.5%
≤90d 34 +19.5% +8.1% 62% 38% +1.5%
all 34 +19.5% +8.1% 62% 38% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 38% +1.5%
10% -2.2% 26% -8.2%
15% ← realistic here -11.7% 26% -17.1%
20% -20.3% 24% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$422 vs −$203 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$37,353
Realized+$9,776
Unrealized+$8,091
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2,228
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $14,547 $16,290 +$1,743 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 29¢ 56¢ $5,300 $10,168 +$4,868 (+92%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $3,060 $3,994 +$934 (+31%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1,941 $2,250 +$309 (+16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 43¢ 46¢ $1,465 $1,584 +$119 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $825 $1,085 +$260 (+32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $1,099 $1,045 −$54 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 89¢ $543 $539 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $483 $398 −$86 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $60 +$240 +400%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $126 +$174 +138%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $2,600 +$358 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,860 +$1,036 +36%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $123 +$177 +144%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $2,730 +$255 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $264 +$657 +249%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $267 −$267 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4,718 +$348 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $60 +$240 +400%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $145 +$155 +107%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 15 $1,840 +$131 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,640 +$3,320 +91%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $253 −$253 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$12 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,220 −$211 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,920 −$910 -47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $868 +$93 +11%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $1,738 +$249 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $2,779 +$402 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $246 −$126 -51%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $14,580 +$648 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $74 −$72 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $2,751 +$148 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$53 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $335 −$335 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,246 +$112 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2,952 +$48 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,866 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,996 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,996 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,994 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,800 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,820 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $60 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $543 7h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,988 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $9 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $15 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $2 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $0 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $84 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,352.71 · official $37,354.51 (match) · 444 history records