Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x838e…aeac politics 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$18
other 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 103 -5.5% -14.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage699d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Prawit Wongsuwan be the next prime minister of Thailand? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anfernee Simons lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will America ban Zyn in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "mog" in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will LSU win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will NDC win the most seats in the Ghanaian parliamentary election? Nov 26 $0 $0 -4%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 18h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 25d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 45d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 46d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 52d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 52d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 73d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 74d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 93d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 94d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? SELL No 100¢ $55 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 103d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 106d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $55 110d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 110d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 111d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 111d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 116d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 116d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $56 120d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $56 121d
Will Prawit Wongsuwan be the next prime minister of Thailand? SELL No 100¢ $53 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records