Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x838d…0e42 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-9%) realized −$16 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$36
other 32% −$74
world 27% +$22
politics 4% +$1
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 45% -13.9%
≤30d 27 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 48% -6.4%
≤90d 27 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 48% -6.4%
all 27 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 48% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 48% -6.4%
10% -17.3% 44% -15.4%
15% -25.3% 41% -23.5%
20% -32.6% 37% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 14¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-73%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 10¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +114%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +162%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $13 +$1 +11%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$24 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $18 +$20 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $8 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $15 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $5 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $11 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $8 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $7 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $2.98 (match) · 53 history records