Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x838c…70da
weather · 52 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 0 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$40
14 days+$5
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? No 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 13 $8 +$50 +609%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$19 +581%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 29? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 30 $0 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 20? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 20? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 17? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 17? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 20? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 20? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 20? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 22? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $14 −$6 -46%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 38% −$66
world 30% −$18
other 8% +$44
finance 8% −$6
crypto 6% +$17
economics 6% −$4
politics 5% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 2¢ $5 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $8 36h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $1 46h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? BUY No 15¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? BUY No 15¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-65.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +46.5% +32.5% 20% 20% +183.6%
≤30d 51 -61.8% -65.5% 6% 6% -31.4%
≤90d 51 -61.8% -65.5% 6% 6% -31.4%
all 51 -61.8% -65.5% 6% 6% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.5% 6% -31.4%
10% -68.8% 6% -38.0%
15% -71.8% 6% -44.0%
20% -74.6% 6% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4.57 · 152 history records