Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x838a…add1 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 423d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,476 (-6%) realized −$7,791 · open +$315
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%120W / 132L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$750est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$4,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,471
7 days+$1,928
14 days−$1,811
30 days−$5,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$8,672
other 43% +$796
crypto 6% −$2,530
world 2% +$1,181
finance 1% +$868
politics 1% +$1,018
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 46% +1.3%
≤30d 67 -13.5% -21.8% 46% 45% -22.3%
≤90d 157 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 48% -15.5%
all 252 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 46% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 46% -14.4%
10% -23.6% 43% -22.6%
15% -31.0% 39% -30.0%
20% -37.7% 33% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$585) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$344 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

423d coverage
Net worth$4,523
Realized−$7,791
Unrealized+$315
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses120 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$750
Open positions5
Markets (closed)252 / 257
History coverage423d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $1,603 $1,753 +$150 (+9%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 97¢ $580 $967 +$387 (+67%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $1,209 $950 −$259 (-21%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 62¢ 69¢ $620 $695 +$75 (+12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $196 $158 −$38 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,237 +$760 +34%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $540 −$540 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $800 −$282 -35%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $790 +$708 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $860 +$1,138 +132%
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 26 $483 +$528 +109%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $490 −$490 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $550 +$450 +82%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,116 +$558 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $511 +$1,084 +212%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $708 −$708 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,086 +$99 +9%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $528 −$528 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $415 +$265 +64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $420 +$780 +186%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $400 −$17 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $450 +$450 +100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $467 −$467 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $342 +$258 +75%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $544 −$544 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $600 +$400 +67%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,003 +$595 +59%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $152 −$149 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $177 −$172 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $46 +$14 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $684 −$377 -55%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $495 +$192 +39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $823 −$823 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $574 +$246 +43%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $399 +$171 +43%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $350 +$350 +100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $497 +$342 +69%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $712 −$711 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $911 −$911 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $921 +$703 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $492 −$492 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $88 +$131 +150%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $490 −$411 -84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $127 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $32 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $16 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $2 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $8 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $102 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $317 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $3 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $13 54m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $200 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,997 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $308 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $24 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $5 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $22 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $9 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $14 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $41 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $54 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $7 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $14 6h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $2 7h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 36¢ $37 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $62 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $15 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $6 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $83 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $81 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Norway 69¢ $261 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,523.33 · official $4,523.43 (match) · 1565 history records