Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x838a…9cea other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$5
other 29% +$6
politics 10% +$1
sports 5% +$6
finance 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 46 +4.2% -5.8% 41% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 9% -8.7%
10% -14.8% 7% -17.4%
15% -23.0% 2% -25.4%
20% -30.6% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage272d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $34 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $76 −$3 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $17 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $16 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 31 $8 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 26 $1 +$2 +187%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $44 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $16 +$6 +35%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $17 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 17 $3 −$2 -49%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $25 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $25 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $34 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $27 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $7 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $34 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $34 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $39 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $38 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $35 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $34 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $38 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records