Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8380…b151 crypto 621 markets active 0h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,705 (+1%) realized +$1,705 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%354W / 267L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,430
7 days−$9,085
14 days−$9,085
30 days−$9,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3,124
crypto 17% −$1,385
other 1% −$56
economics 0% −$125
politics 0% −$20
weather 0% −$21
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -70.7% -73.5% 15% 11% -50.1%
≤30d 228 -70.7% -73.5% 15% 11% -50.1%
≤90d 306 -47.9% -52.9% 29% 22% -32.1%
all 621 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 36% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 36% -8.7%
10% -22.5% 32% -17.4%
15% -30.0% 29% -25.4%
20% -36.8% 26% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$48 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,705
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses354 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)621 / 621
History coverage254d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 621 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$135 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$57 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $195 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $195 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $290 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $154 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $70 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1841 history records