Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x837d…39c2 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-55%) realized −$212 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$55
other 44% −$158
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 36% -28.2%
≤30d 83 -31.5% -38.0% 34% 34% -32.8%
≤90d 83 -31.5% -38.0% 34% 34% -32.8%
all 88 -35.4% -41.6% 32% 32% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 32% -63.5%
10% -47.2% 32% -67.0%
15% -52.3% 31% -70.2%
20% -56.9% 28% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage167d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 33¢ 96¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+192%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.78 · official $7.21 (match) · 140 history records