Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
83 0x8379…7a2a other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$22 (+15%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 83% +6.7%
≤30d 6 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 83% +6.7%
≤90d 6 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 83% +6.7%
all 6 +19.1% +7.7% 100% 83% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 83% +6.7%
10% -2.6% 17% -3.5%
15% -12.0% 17% -12.8%
20% -20.6% 0% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 +$5 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $27 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $23 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.46 · official $31.46 (match) · 13 history records