Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8378…a879 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%18W / 129L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$44
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$40
politics 28% −$21
sports 19% −$16
crypto 10% −$4
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$4
finance 3% −$1
culture 3% −$2
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 73 -1.3% -10.7% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 136 -0.8% -10.3% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 147 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses18 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage100d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$3 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $503 −$3 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $261 −$3 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $540 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $53 $0 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $49 −$13 -28%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alisson Becker record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 09 $15 −$3 -19%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $527 $0 +0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $49 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $517 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $117 −$2 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $224 −$4 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $259 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $323 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $66 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $59 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 14h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 20h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 20h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 25h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $46 26h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $48 31h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $46 31h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $47 40h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 40h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 47h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $63 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $45 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $19 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $61 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.53 · official $65.53 (match) · 678 history records