Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8375…1017 crypto 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%52W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$35
crypto 44% −$8
other 7% +$28
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 43% -10.6%
≤30d 106 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 47% -10.8%
≤90d 106 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 47% -10.8%
all 106 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 47% -10.8%
10% -19.5% 42% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 37% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses52 / 54
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)106 / 120
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 66¢ 84¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 47¢ 68¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Over 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 41¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Over 8¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$19 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$18 +44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $14 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$12 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $9 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 29m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $5 33m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 36m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $10 40m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 42m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $15 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $35 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 15h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $5 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 29¢ $2 22h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $5 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 23h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 23h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $10 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.96 · official $133.96 (match) · 238 history records