Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

83 0x8373…7475 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$213 (+24%) realized +$550 · open −$337

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$180per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+60.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+77.9%	+60.9%	100%	100%	+43.4%
≤30d	3	+77.9%	+60.9%	100%	100%	+43.4%
≤90d	3	+77.9%	+60.9%	100%	100%	+43.4%
all	3	+77.9%	+60.9%	100%	100%	+43.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.9%	100%	+43.4%
10%	+45.5%	100%	+29.7%
15%	+31.5%	100%	+17.1%
20%	+18.6%	33%	+5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +78% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$94 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized+$550

Unrealized−$337

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$180

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	49¢	55¢	$67	$74	+$7 (+11%)
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht	Leonid Sheyngezikht	54¢	0¢	$345	$0	−$344 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova	Jun 24	$240	+$110	+46%
ITF Wuning: Joshua Charlton vs Zhao Zhao	Jun 24	$171	+$68	+40%
ITF Taipei: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema	Jun 24	$69	+$102	+148%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$69	5m
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht	BUY Leonid Sheyngezikht	54¢	$349	1h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova	SELL Marianna Shikhanova	100¢	$350	1h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova	BUY Marianna Shikhanova	68¢	$240	3h
ITF Wuning: Joshua Charlton vs Zhao Zhao	SELL Joshua Charlton	98¢	$240	3h
ITF Wuning: Joshua Charlton vs Zhao Zhao	BUY Joshua Charlton	69¢	$171	3h
ITF Taipei: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema	SELL Erika Sema	99¢	$171	3h
ITF Taipei: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema	BUY Erika Sema	39¢	$69	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.37 · official $66.22 · 8 history records